BA Grade/Risk: 65/Very High

Track Record: After a 2021 season full of highlights, Baz's 2022 season never got going. In 2021, he pitched for Team USA's silver medal-winning Olympic team, emerged as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, earned a late callup to the Rays and started a game in the postseason. In 2022, Baz got off to a late start thanks to surgery to remove loose bodies in his right elbow during spring training. The surgery foreshadowed further problems. Baz returned to action in mid May and joined the Rays rotation in early June. He pitched extremely effectively in his first five starts--2.92 ERA with 28 strikeouts and nine walks in 24.2 innings--but gave up seven runs and three home runs in just 2.1 innings before being lifted with elbow pain in his final start on July 10. He spent the rest of the season on the injured list and had Tommy John surgery in late September. The Rays initially acquired Baz as the player to be named in the trade that saw Tampa Bay acquire Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows from the Pirates for Chris Archer. In hindsight, any one of those prospects would have been a fair trade for Archer, but acquiring all three in the same deal proved to be one of the best trades a team has made this century.

Scouting Report: When healthy, Baz has some of the best pure stuff in baseball. His 94-99 mph fastball is very similar to Gerrit Cole's in terms of velocity and movement. It has well above-average carry at the top of the zone to generate an above-average rate of swings-and-misses. It also has the flat plane that accentuates its liveliness. As importantly, Baz does an excellent job of locating it in and around the strike zone. His plus slider is a hard pitch at 86-89 mph with minimal sweep. It's effective because of its power. Baz has an average 87-88 mph changeup he uses only against lefthanded hitters, and it pairs well with his slider. His fringe-average low-80s curveball is a useful early-count pitch to steal a strike against a hitter geared up for his fastball or slider. His curve moves north-south, so he's comfortable throwing it to both lefties and righties. When Baz was drafted 12th overall out of high school in 2017, evaluators had significant concerns about his control and command, but as he's gotten stronger and matured, he's developed into a much more consistent strike-thrower. His plus control backed up a little in 2022, but that may have been related to his lingering elbow issues.

The Future: Baz's 2023 season will be spent rehabbing from elbow surgery, but assuming his rehab goes as planned, he should be a valuable part of the Rays' rotation in 2024. In a Tampa Bay system that is thinner in pitching prospects than it has been in years, Baz has the best combination of multiple effective pitches, pure stuff and pitchability. If he makes a full recovery, he could give the Rays another front-of-the-rotation starter to go with Shane McClanahan.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80. Slider: 60. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 50. Control: 60